First of all we need to go over some background as to how
the rise of ISIS occurred.
It all started with the invasion of Iraq. The idea of a regime change however dates
back at least to Clinton in 1998.1 At the time
right after the first Gulf War, Dick Cheney had warned against invading Baghdad
and taking out Saddam and that it was a good thing they hadn’t up to that point and so regime change had not been a goal of that war. 2
A Decade later he had changed his tune but just about
everything he had said would happen, did as he had predicted.
Saddam was a tyrant to be sure, but he was fairly secular
and let minority groups for the most part do their own thing. Christians and women were fairly well off,
certainly when compared to the rest of the region. Syria as well was a relatively good place to
be. 3 Taking him out then left a power vacuum
that was fresh to be filled by the first radical group that could take hold. 4. The troops largely left except for the few
that were left behind to guide them.
This had been negotiated by bush before he left office, Obama had
intended and tried to push for them to be there longer, but the Iraqis objected
and so they were essentially kicked out. 5 Next we then look at the civil war in Syria,
the US opposed Assad and so wanted to back the group that opposed him, enter
the rebels. I knew at that point it was
a mistake to support the rebels because I was familiar with history and had
looked at who was backing the rebels, the Muslim brotherhood for one
thing. Aside from that, much like
Saddam, I knew taking out the leader in such a way would leave a power vacuum and
only leave it open for the most radical elements to take control. I predicted nothing
good could come of that. Sure enough,
many of those affiliated with the Syrian Rebels ended up joining what would
become the Islamic State. It makes you
wonder if our leaders are so naïve as to not learn from history. However some information has come to light
that they may have known more than they let on. You can download the document at Judicial Watch, wherein they acknowledge they knew Al Quaida was supporting the Rebels..6 It tends to happen that we will support someone,
particularly in 20 years., that region only for them to become our enemies
later, usually the process takes about 20 years, remember, Saddam was an ally
of ours at one point. ISIS latched on
faster than that but there were still many of the same factors.
Now his should we handle them? As I have shown, our attempts to fix problems
don’t tend to end very well. I have been
trying to figure it out but there would be no easy and good solution and so
what Dick Cheney called a “quagmire” is certainly appropriate. In trying to fix it and set up a government
for them, we may get some stable leader in the area who will then only turn on
us. Normally I think they should handle
their own civil wars as Syria should have, but in this case I feel there is
some moral responsibility in the part of the US for setting the stage to allow
it to happen, plus at this point they have actively declared war on us. I also
feel they goading us on. One option I
think we could do is have congress issue letters of Marque for a very specific mission to target ISIS particularly
with a focus on hostage rescue, and then when that is done leave and let the people
over there put it together, have them decide on who they want in charge. Currently there has been some success in taking out some of the leaders but my worry there is always what is the collateral damage? Whatever further action we take however must have
congressional backing, some of the problems we have run into have also been with
contractors having a lack of oversight. We would also need to have the people there want it otherwise again we are back where we started, the countries effected would need to be involved in fighting against ISIS, the Arab countries would need to work together to defeat ISIS and at the moment they are fractured. Ultimately, it comes down to them, they have to be the ones willing to fight ISIS. In the process, do not arm any rebel group we might think
could help against ISIS as we would only regret it later. This is also why the idea of “the enemy of my
enemy is my friend” is so dangerous. Having a prolonged involvement as some have
suggested will only perpetuate the exact same cycle. I am torn on that,
figuring out the problem is the easy part, figuring out solutions may in fact
be impossible in the end. It is important to know the background however
before jumping into something. This is
how I have put it all together. Based on the historic precedent, I am pretty
confident in this prognostication, at least most aspects of it and why I think
it is important to study how history repeats itself, although I am open to
ideas.
One additional video that gives some good information on the
background of the origins of ISIS
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